Euro 2012

OMFG! Football! EURO 2012! Eng-ur-land!

That's right kids, another major international football tournament is upon us already, so I may as well continue my tradition of incorrectly predicting what will happen and noting it all down on here so you can all laugh at me afterwards. After a fine Premier League season and a thoroughly entertaining Champions League campaign, we're going into this one with enthusiasm and excitement - albeit for the tournament itself and not England's chances. More on them later.

Some quick predictions for you then. I'll use the structure that the Grauniad uses here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2012/jun/07/euro-2012-guardian-predictions

FINAL


Germany v Spain

I'm sold on the Germans this year, I really am. I thought they were sensational at the World Cup of two years ago, the best team there, but just ran out of fizz when they needed it the most. With the experience of that campaign under their belts, I like their chances. Spain? Jam packed with quality, of course, but David Villa's absence is a blow and they can't keep on winning these things. What a fantastic final this would be, and I reckon Germany would just sneak it.

Germany 2-1 Spain

TOP SCORER


One name springs to mind immediately, but I have a feeling he'll be Top 5 but not the #1 goalscorer. So I won't go for Robin van Persie on this one, but I will go for Mario Gomez. A lot of that is based on my "Germany to win" prediction so we'll see, but I do fancy him to bounce back from a rotten Champions League final and bang in a few.

PLAYER TO WATCH


A number of people spring to mind here. Close to home, I think this tournament could see the emergence of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain as a real player. He's so much better than Walcott it's untrue, and searing pace + a brain = trouble for defenders. Further afield, I really like Cabaye of France, and I hope he can play for his national team like he does for Newcastle. Mario Balotelli is of course always very watchable - will it be triumph or despair for the maverick Italian? What about Fernando Torres - can he get back to this best? From my tip Germany there's Toni Kroos, Mario Gotze and Thomas Muller, all quality young players. I'm not sure how much they'll play, but the Spanish duo of Santi Cazorla and Fernando Llorente are both fun to watch despite having thoroughly different styles.

ENGLAND


The squad isn't as terrible as some are making it out to be, but it is still difficult to see England winning this one. The first match against France will tell us a lot. A win, and the momentum will carry you through towards being group winners. A draw, and suddenly you're a bit worried about topping the group, but still content you can qualify from it. A defeat, and you're facing Sweden who you've never beaten in a major tournament before followed by Ukraine who are a poor side but are at home and haven't had to travel all the way from Poland for the match, and you're beginning to sweat a bit.

Group winners or runners up, however, it's a stretch imagining England beating the likes of Spain, Germany et al in the knock-out stages. It could very well be QF and out, once again.

MOST LOOKING FORWARD TO


Germany, Holland and Spain playing good football. Danny Welbeck to do well and gain a whole world of confidence in time for next season. Ireland to do well, and have fun whilst doing it. Mario Balotelli to do...something. The French to spontaneously combust again.

LEAST LOOKING FORWARD TO


The lingering threat of hooliganism and racism. The inevitable fall-out when England lose. The endless Ferdinand/Terry questions immediately after Terry slips on his arse and costs England a goal. Poland and Ukraine being bloody awful and really not warranting their places in the tournament.

Enjoy the tournament, fellow soccerball fans!

So Long, Farewell

This blog post is intended to be a bit of catharsis I need to "throw out there" in order to get over last night's awful Manchester derby and the choking away of the 2011/12 Premier League title. Before I get onto all that however, I want to talk to you a little about a man called Mariano Rivera.

Mariano Rivera is a pitcher who plays for the New York Yankees. He is called a "closer" - which basically means that if the Yankees have a lead going into the final inning, it is his job to "close" the game out and stop the other team scoring a tying run - and he's been doing this job since 1995. Mariano Rivera is also very, very, very, very....(wait for it)....VERY good. If you don't like/know about baseball you'll just have to take my word on this one, but I assure you that Mariano Rivera is jaw-droppingly good and a certain Hall of Famer.

Of course, Mariano is now 42, and no man - no matter how talented - can ultimately defeat the sands of time. As good as he is, there's always the worry that Mariano is going to wake up one morning and it's gone. All gone. Here's what Baseball Prospectus 2012 says:

"He can't go on forever, of course, and like Cary Grant retiring from the screen while he still had his looks, let's hope Rivera quits before his famous cut fastball does. The only thing worse than not having him would be seeing him fail."

If I now bring this back round to Manchester United, you might begin to see where I'm going with this one. Ryan Giggs and Mariano Rivera don't have an awful lot in common, but I can't help thinking about both of them today. Whilst the latter keeps on going relentlessly, it might be about time to admit that for the former, his race is run. It isn't easy to say that, and I've written off United players before and they've proved me incredibly wrong, but I really do feel it's the case this time. For a while now we've all been thinking about what impact Giggs can have in the "big games" nowadays, but we've never had the nerve to say it out loud. He isn't the flying left-winger of yesteryear, his body isn't suited to centre midfield anymore and the past season or two he's given the ball away a staggering amount - far, far more than he ever did. Little mistakes have crept in as the clock has kept on ticking, and it's sad. It really is.

Of course, if we're going to look at the Manchester United midfield, we shouldn't stop there. A player by player analysis suddenly throws up some serious problems:

Ryan Giggs - See above.

Paul Scholes - Reserve team coach who came out of retirement (and has done brilliantly)

Darren Fletcher - Won't play again.


Paul Pogba - Gone to Juventus.

Anderson - The least reliable person ever.

Nani - Great, but inconsistent.

Antonio Valencia - Great.

Ashley Young - Unconvinced. Has talent, though.

Michael Carrick - Splits opinion, but I love him.

Ji Sung Park - Love him, but he's old now and as his legs go an incredibly important part of his game goes with them.

Tom Cleverley - Talented, but injured this season and still a kid.

And that's it. Here's football writer Iain Macintosh:

"When the biggest team on the planet is still relying on 1991's breakout player and the reserve team coach, there's a problem, isn't there?"

I'd say that Real Madrid were the biggest team on the planet, myself, but regardless of that - he's correct, and we know what...sorry, who....the problem is. But when you float the club on the stock exchange and let any Tom, Dick or Malcolm with some $ able to take over what do you expect?

This isn't a knee-jerk reaction to last night, and I understand that a football team can't win everything, every year. I'm glad that they don't, to be honest, because gosh that would be dull. I also recognise that I'm very lucky to support the team I do, particularly at a time when we've seen smaller clubs have to fold and start again, or in the case of Wimbledon just suddenly picked up and moved miles away by some businessman.

No, it's not that we won't win anything this season. It's the sense of unease around the place. That we know the manager hasn't got long left. That all the success recently has been in spite of the Glazers, not because of them. That Sir Alex is effectively fighting against the tide. That our friends across the city have overtaken us and are driving off into the distance. That - to quote any amateur historian - every empire crumbles eventually.

I don't know whether you'll blame Glazernomics for this one or not, but last night was not the game for two club legends such as Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes to be playing in centre midfield together.

The only thing worse than not having them is seeing them fail.

Next Stop - ????

Earlier on today I was cleaning my room when I happened to find the England flag my Dad got free from a Gillette promotion about a month ago. I hung it up over my bed, weighed down by a pile of DVDs at one end and a pile of XBox games at the other. If I turn to my right, it's still there - I can't bring myself to take it down after less than a day.

The England game today made me feel angry - much more angry than I would ever have thought I could feel over the England national team. I've always been a United >>> England man, but this World Cup I found myself being sucked back in, guilty of falling for the hype, the anticipation, the excitement.

I want to talk for a little while about where I think England went wrong, a follow up to my last posting where I concluded with a little bit of positivity. Hey, I was caught up with it all. In this blog post I'm not going to talk about the Lampard "goal" - it crossed the line, yes. It was a goal, yes. It should have been 2-2 at half time, yes yes yes. But to think England went out because of that is, I fear, short-sighted. I also fear the media will concentrate on that and not the bigger issues at hand here.

'Just 10% of our players have a good first touch, and we have to make it 80%'

A quote from Glenn Hoddle, about 13 years ago. I use it because sadly, based on today's game, it's still relevant. For a nation that's meant to be a footballing heavyweight, with outstanding individual players, the ball control is appalling, the good first touch is non-existent, the ball retention is shameful compared to, well, most other nations. Possession is 9/10ths of the law, and it certainly applies to football. I can't think of a single moment at this World Cup where England passed the ball around and looked comfortable on it, composed on it, assured on it. I don't want to labour the point, but at the end of a recent Carlsberg advert there's a shot of Bobby Moore - the best example of how a player, playing any position on a football pitch, can use the ball in an manner that befits calmness and clarity of thought.

Ah yes, thought. The art of thinking. In my opinion, the England players are thick.

Did that get your attention? I think it's true though. Earlier on today the commentator described the German midfielder Mesut Ozil as 'a clever footballer'. How many England players could you say the same? I can only think of one, and that's being generous to Joe Cole. There's different types of "clever" on a football pitch though - the creative nature shown above is one aspect, the other is understanding the game you're in. The situation that is happening around you. Understanding what needs to be done, rather than what you want to do.

'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs'

Germany's 4th goal today came in the 68th minute of the game. For all of you mathematicians out there, that's with 22 minutes to go. 22 minutes? That's almost 1/4 of the game.

England were on top in the second half - Lampard hit the bar, the Germans were rattled, and the England goal was coming. Then came the Germans 3rd goal, which was a classy piece of counter-attacking play. Problems - but not terminal ones. Bring on some impact subs (more on Capello later), get a goal back quickly and you have plenty of time to get an equaliser. Hey, you have 1/4 of the game left to go, right? There is no need to panic.

So, Mr John Terry, the absolute worst thing you can do is go charging up the field like a madman and try and be a hero. "Terry has stormed forward here" said the commentator, at which point I turned to my father and said "So what happens if they now break away again?". Naturally they then did - Ozil got past Gareth Barry (no idea what he was doing by the way) and made his way to the penalty area. If John Terry was there, no problem. But he wasn't - he was in the other box. Ball laid across to Muller for the 4th, thanks very much. 3-1 wasn't terminal with 1/4 of the game left to go. 4-1 certainly was. There was no need, John. No need at all.

Oh Fabio, you're not getting away scot-free either my friend. In the first half every piece of German play was coming from the right hand side. No real surprise, considering that it was Ashley Cole against Muller, Ozil and Lahm. Our left sided midfielder? LOL jk, as the kids say - we didn't have one. This was all taking place on the touchline where Capello was standing a few feet away from, so his poor eyesight is no excuse. Gerrard on the left, Milner on the left, Lampard on the left, Joe Cole on the left - doesn't matter. When they all naturally want to drift inside and leave the touchline completely vacant, it really doesn't matter. Meanwhile, Adam Johnson sits at home crying. ANY left winger sits at home crying, as Capello picks up his £6m a year from the FA. I think he's a good manager, don't get me wrong (you can't argue with his track record) but his stubbornness and inflexibility has cost England at this World Cup.

There is so much more I want to type - in preparation for this blog post I got out a pad of paper and jotted down why I thought England performed so poorly, and I ended up with 13 different things. But I imagine most of you have stopped reading by now, so let's leave the defeat behind, let's leave the negativity behind and look forward.

1) In my opinion, there is no point sacking Capello if there's no adequate replacement. Harry Redknapp? Too much baggage for the FA - the next Brian Clough in that respect. And why would he walk away from Champions League football? Roy Hodgson? Possibly going to take the Liverpool job. Whoever it is though, they need to have a major clear-out. Keep a few senior players, for the experience, but bring through the youth.

My team for the Euro 2012 qualifiers would be:

Hart, Johnson, Dawson, King, A Cole, Lennon, Milner, Huddlestone, Johnson, Rooney, Crouch

There is talent coming through beyond those names as well - Wilshire, Cleverley, Walcott (lol), Rodwell, Moses, Cattermole, Vaughan, Sturridge, Delph, Carroll, Delfonso, Gibbs, Gosling, Jones...I'm not saying all these are going to be internationals, or world-beaters, but it's a selection of names which gives some hope for future England teams, and which gives us a signal that for the "golden generation" it's pretty much all over.

2) Establish an academy like the French have at Clairefontaine, and teach young players to express themselves - not to stifle them with pragmatism and negative play, but to encourage them to play with freedom yet with purpose. I watched Lionel Messi play the other night. He made about 10 dribbles during the game, with about 8 leading to him being quickly dispossessed. Did that deter him? Will he go out in future and play negative football? No, because of the way he's been coached throughout his youth, as well as how he has learnt to trust himself, he'll keep on being Messi, and he'll keep on being brilliant.

3) Stem the tide of foreign players into the English clubs. For every Bergkamp and Zola, there is an average foreign player who is taking away a place for a promising English player at their club, mainly because their wages are so cheap. I have no idea how you enforce this, thanks to EU freedom of movement and all that jazz, but if the FA are serious about having a good national team, they need to explore ways of doing this, and soon.

I promise I'm going to stop now, as you've all fallen asleep. Before I go off and sleep, however, there's a flag that needs to be taken down...

Next Stop - Panicville

By now you should have recovered from the living nightmare that was England 0-0 Algeria. After that result and the 1-1 draw against the US of A qualification from the group is looking a wee bit precarious. So what's happened?

There's been plenty of excuses bounding around - "IT'S THE BALL!" "IT'S THOSE BLOODY VUVUZELAS!" "IT'S THE ALTITUDE!" "THE PLAYERS DON'T CARE!" "IT'S NICK CLEGGS FAULT!" etc etc. In terms of why England are performing poorly, here's my two cents:

1) Gerrard and Lampard can't play in the same midfield. I know this isn't an original thought, but by God it's true. Both have the same natural instinct - running forward from the centre circle into the box and scoring goals. Based on the two games so far, Capello is asking these two to do a job that they're not comfortable with. Both look stifled, both look ineffective, particularly Gerrard who was asked to play on the left against the Algerians (No Fabio, no!) Whilst Heskey does a good job leading the line in a 4-4-2, I'd drop him and tuck Gerrard in behind Rooney. That isn't ideal, I admit, but if something isn't working, you have to change it.

2) Expectation. Quite simply, there's too much of it. Before that game on Friday, the Algerian players probably didn't know or care what their press were writing/saying, whatever the result. The England players however knew that anything other than a convincing win, and they're getting hammered by the press.

If Frank Lampard has a bad game for Chelsea, the fans stream out of Stamford Bridge having a little grumble about Frank not being on form, but it doesn't matter because next week he'll be better. If Frank Lampard has a bad game for England, it's a national crisis - he should be dropped, never play for England again, a disgrace to his country, cares more about his club blah blah blah.

There's an interesting baseball analogy here:

In 2007, the Chicago Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball, reaching the play-offs. They promptly lost 3 games out of 3, and went home.

In 2008, the Chicago Cubs were one of the best teams in baseball, reaching the play-offs. They promptly lost 3 games out of 3 , and went home.

It's now been 102 years since the Cubs have won the World Series. So why can they be so good in the regular season, and so bad in the play-offs? Quite simply, it's the weight of expectation, and it's crushed the Cubs for over 100 years, and it could well crush England this tournament and many others. "40 years of hurt" and all that may be witty, but it may not be helping either. "The players don't care". Wrong - total opposite. They care too much, they're too aware. They are being stifled.

3) Rooney isn't right. At the end of last season, United rushed him back into action after injury because, to be honest, he was their only hope. I'm certain his poor form is a result of this. Whether he's carrying an injury, or whether he's completely frazzled out, it's a huge worry, considering that he would be the first name on your team sheet.

Despite all this however, I still think England have a chance at going far. No, really, I do. A win in the final group game against Slovenia and England are in the last 16, where the competition really gets started. And let's not forget Spain losing to Switzerland, Germany losing to Serbia, Italy being held with New Zealand, France imploding so dramatically. It's a funny tournament you know, with plenty of twists and turns still to come. Don't write England off just yet.

Here's the team I would pick if I was Don Capello. Please take a moment to marvel at my Paint skills:

No Words

I have nothing to say about the football yesterday, although I have sufficiently calmed from the manic frenzy I was in immediately after the match. Thanks to Demented Demon for at least trying to calm me.

This might be a novel approach for a blog entry, but I'm not going to use any words to summise Dimitar Berbatov. I am simply going to put up a picture, and let you, my dear reader, fill in the blank.